Thinking Fast and Slow

Ongoing comments - Part 2 - Heuristics and Biases

Chapter 10 - The Law of Small Numbers. Great point - page 115 "The widespread misunderstanding of randomness sometimes has sifnificant consequences." We seek patterns and, by looking a samples that are too small, may find meaning or explanations where none exist. A la the "hot hand" in basketball.

Chapter 11 - Anchors

2 of these

System 1 - anchoring that is automatic as a result of "priming"

System 2 - anchoring as adjustment

Interesting idea - anchoring index page 123 excellent set of examples of the anchoring effect as measured by the anchoring index in the real work - listing prices of homes, donations, and the terrifying example of dice and German judges on pages 125-6

Chapter 12 - The Science of Availability - page 131 married couples asked about contributions to housework - added answers are greater than 100 per cent.

Paradoxical results of availability research and self awareness.

Availability bias conditions (lead to increased bias)

engaged in an effortful task
good mood
low depression
knowledgable novice
high in faith in intuition
powerful or feel powerful

Chapter 13 Availability, Emotion and Risk

Activation of ideas in associative memory can lead to substitution therefore the following can impact system 1 judgments and lead to intuitve action

The media
Highlighted or bolded text
Pre existing feeling - affective heuristic

Experiment on associative coherence - technology survey - is technology, on net, positive or negative.

Slovic favors decentralized risk assessment and reaction, Cass Sunstein favors experts due to the availability cascade.

Chapter 14 - Tom W's Specialty - 9 majors in grad school, then description of Tom and rank each time.

page 151

Reader of NY Times on the New York Subway

Phd
No college degree


Rerun experiment - Harvard have 1/2 puff out cheek, 1/2 frown then answer. Frowners improved results.

Chapter 15 - Linda: Less is more

Chapter 16 - Causes Trmpt Statistics

Stereotyping - page 169

Chapter 17 - Regression to the Mean - page 181-182 The comment, in a trial, the side that must explain regression to a jury will lose. Mind biased toward causal explanations and does not process statistics.

Chapter 18 - Making Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive predictions - system 1
extreme predictions and rare events manifestions of system 1


Correcting or adjusting intuitive predictions - system 2

Both system 1 and 2 have a problem with regression